TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/election/76elect/76elect.002

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                                                                                March 29, 1976

THE NATION

Another Loss For the Gipper


     In his most famous movie role, Ronald Reagan, as the
strep- stricken Notre Dame halfback George Gipp, insisted on
going to Illinois to play the Big Game against Northwestern. He
made the do-or-die try, and sure enough -- in a scene worth
three wet handkerchiefs -- he died soon afterward.

     Something of the sort happened last week in Illinois to
Reagan's candidacy. Its health had been severely taxed by four
primary losses to President Ford, yet Reagan gamely pushed on
to Illinois and suffered his worst defeat so far. Score: Ford
59%, Reagan 40%. (Ford got the news in his second-floor White
House study, while he was working through some papers and
listening to Angie Dickinson's Police Woman on a TV set that was
turned down low.)

     But Reagan refused -- for now -- to let his candidacy
expire. From his Pacific Palisades aerie overlooking smog-bound
Los Angeles, he claimed that "we appear to have met our goal."
For 1976's hard-pressed Gipper, 40% constitutes a victory. Next
day he jetted to North Carolina for five days of campaigning in
a feverish run to overcome Ford's lead among the Tarheels.

     Reagan's hang-on insistence was all the more puzzling
because of his lackadaisical campaigning style in Illinois.
Reported TIME Midwest Bureau Chief Ben Cate: "He wasted hours
of valuable time going from one obscure town to another by
motorcade. He sometimes slipped into motels and hotels through
back doors, then begged off working the crowds waiting outside
with a lame excuse: `I'm sorry, but I'm running behind
schedule.' he did not go after the suburban straphangers until
it was too late. By contrast, Ford worked the fences and the
police barricades as if he were L.B.J. in his prime. He deftly
handled questions about everything from the Nixon pardon to the
problems of Lock and Dam 26 on the Mississippi River at Alton,
Ill., to civil rights for homosexuals (`I have always tried to
be an understanding person as far as people are concerned who
are different from myself'). He played very well in Peoria --
by 63% -- and just about everywhere else."

     Out of Gas. After Illinois, Reagan trailed Ford by at least
54 delegates to 174. To give him even a remote chance of
winning, his supporters had to concoct some farfetched
scenarios. Noting that he had a 54%-to-37% lead in the latest
poll in California, taken just before his loss in New Hampshire,
California G.O.P. Vice Chairman Mike Montgomery doggedly
maintained: "Take what delegates he has now, add California
[167], and he's ahead." After North Carolina, however, Reagan
has no expectations of winning a primary before Texas on May 1.
If he blows that one, concludes his campaign manager, John
Sears, "he's out."

     The pressures will mount on him to withdraw much sooner
for the sake of party unity. Said a White House assistant,
indelicately: "Even Rommel gave up when his tanks ran out of
gas." For fear of antagonizing conservatives whose enthusiasm
Ford will need in November, the President's aides have not
directly assailed Reagan as a spoiler. Instead, they have
encouraged Ford loyalists to speak out. Rogers Morton, who was
tapped to succeed Bo Calloway as campaign manager, has asked
Texas Senator John Tower, House Minority Leader John Rhodes and
Republican Whip Robert Michel to "open a dialogue" with such
Reagan partisans as North Carolina Senator Jesse Helms and
Illinois Republican Congressman Philip Crane. Nine Republican
Governors advised Reagan to quit.

     "The President," says a Ford confidant, "is increasingly
moving into a position where he can afford to be magnanimous.
But Reagan is moving into a position where he's going to have
to become a s.o.b. That's a dangerous situation."

     So far, however, the Reagan challenge has been a bracing
spring training for Ford. Reports TIME Washington Correspondent
Dean Fischer: "Reagan's bid is viewed as a plus because it
enabled Ford to develop an effective campaign organization
early, improve his own campaigning ability through practice,
appear to the public as a comparative moderate and get a lot of
publicity. Until now, in the words of one facetious White House
aide: `It looks as if Reagan is a Ford plant.'" Campaigning at
week's end in North Carolina, Ford declared that he will win
the G.O.P. nomination whether Reagan withdraws his candidacy or
not, and flatly denied that he had authorized anyone on his
staff to "suggest to my opponent that he ought to get out of the
race." Ford did avow, however, that Reagan's continued efforts
could have a divisive effect on the party.

     On Track. Of course, the President benefited even more from
the economy's rebound. Until about six weeks ago, surveys
showed that Republicans were gloomy about the future; now most
of them believe that the U.S. is back on the tracks. As a
result, even conservatives are voting for Ford by top-heavy
majorities. Since his State of the Union address in January,
Ford has not been forced to make a decision that would offend
any bloc of voters -- an almost incredible run of luck that
Hollywood's game Gipper had no way of overcoming.


May 10, 1976 REPUBLICANS Reagan's Startling Texas Landslide

     "For weeks," cracked Ronald Reagan, "I've been whistling
`Nothin' could be finer than to be in Carolina." I hope I can
soon whistle `The eyes of Texas are upon you.'"

     He was not only able to whistle it, he sang it over the
phone from Indiana to his supporters gathered at a victory
party in Houston.  By early Sunday it was clear that Reagan had
won the Texas primary in a startling landslide. He would
probably win every one of the 96 delegates elected to the
Republican National Convention and President Ford none at all.
At best, in late returns, Ford could hope to salvage a few
delegates. Reagan was ahead in the popular vote by some 2 to 1.

     The Californian owed much of his victory to conservative
Democrats who crossed over to vote Republican. Said G.O.P.
Senator John Tower, Ford's Texas campaign chairman: "The Reagan
organization, aided by former Wallace leaders, made a concerted
and obviously successful effort to get Wallaceites into the
Republican primary to support Governor Reagan." Even though the
outcome was distorted by Democratic votes, it will provoke many
agonizing doubts among campaign strategists at the White House.

     Reagan had been favored to prevail in Texas, where nothing
succeeds like conservative politics with a touch of cussedness.
President Ford tried his best to be just as conservative and
just as cussed, but Texans were obviously not convinced. In
giving Reagan their votes, they also gave him a dramatic
reprieve in his uphill fight for the nomination and delivered
a jolting setback to Ford. Until Texas, he had been far ahead
of Reagan in firm delegates, 268 to 137 (needed to nominate:
1,130).

     Hard Issues. Reagan's victory seems to indicate that his
Southern strategy is beginning to work. In eight primaries
before Texas, he won only in North Carolina, losing to Ford not
only in the North but also in Florida. He was counting on a
rebound in the string of Southern primaries and caucuses in
April and May. He did better than expected in Arizona. Even
though Senator Barry Goldwater supported the President, Reagan
won 27 of the 29 delegates chosen at last week's G.O.P. state
convention. At the same time he picked up eleven of the 16
delegates in the Kentucky caucuses. He is well ahead in this
week's Georgia and Alabama primaries. While Ford had been
considered leading in Arkansas and Tennessee, which hold
primaries on May 25, Reagan's Texas win will give him a chance
of overtaking the President there. With such victories, he would
be a real challenger.

     In Texas, Reagan's organization could not rival Ford's --
an important consideration in a state where the Republican Party
is organized haphazardly, if at all. In 44 of the state's 254
counties, Republicans simply cannot vote in the primaries
because there are no polling booths for them. The President's
staff installed central phone banks in 26 counties where some
88% of the G.O.P. vote is concentrated. Ford also outspent
Reagan -- $450,000 to $250,000; candidates for the Reagan slate,
however, spent heavily on their own races.

     But Reagan had the issues, and he played them for all they
were worth. National security was one of Reagan's big winners.
He charged that the U.S. had fallen dangerously behind the
Soviet Union in military strength. He accused Secretary of State
Henry Kissinger of "bowing and scraping" before the Russians
because he had no faith in the American people and wanted to
accommodate to what he considered to be the Red wave of the
future. Now Ford will be under increasing pressure from
right-wing Republicans and a faction in the White House to dump
Kissinger.

     Reagan attacked Ford for cutting back on military bases
and post offices while continuing to subsidize the United
Nations. The U.S. contribution should be reduced at once, said
Reagan. he also accused the President of planning to give away
the Panama Canal to a "tinhorn dictator friend of Fidel
Castro's. Personally, I would tell this jerk we bought it, we
paid for it, and we are going to keep it." Ford replied that he
had no intention of "giving away" the canal.

     In a state where oil is king, Reagan also lambasted the
bill signed by Ford in 1975 to roll back the price of domestic
oil and to remove the $2-per-bbl. tariff on  imported oil.
Reagan called for a repeal of the bill and an end to all price
controls so that the U.S. would produce more oil and rely less
on imports from the Middle East. "How many Texans will lose
their jobs?" he demanded. "How many Texas plants will be closed
during the next oil embargo?" In the oil-rich Panhandle, some
producers felt betrayed by the President. "We thought Ford said
he would veto the bill," complained an oil operator. "So a lot
of us contracted for rigs, paid bonuses, leased land, and were
ready to go. We had bet on him and we lost."

     Breezy Candor. The President had his family working for
him. Son Jack, 24, stumped the state with a breezy candor. With
the Citizen's Band radio in her car, Betty found a new medium
to project the Ford message. A fascinated Texas press picked up
every word uttered by "First Mama." Reagan's family was less in
evidence but equally hard-working. His wife Nancy spent six days
in Texas, appearing on radio and TV interviews. Son Ron, 17,
joined the press bus to gather information for a political
science paper he was writing for school.

     Conspicuously absent from Reagan's campaign -- or Ford's
-- was any salute to the last Republican elected President. Ford
did not even mention Nixon's name, substituting instead "my
predecessor" or "Lyndon Johnson's successor." Explained the
President: "It is better for all of us just not to remind
ourselves of that unfortunate period."


August 2, 1976 REPUBLICANS Ford Is Close, but Watch Those Trojan
Horses

     Fifteen new votes from Hawaii. Eight from New York. Five
from Virginia. One each from Delaware, Illinois, Louisiana,
South Carolina. Mississippi, clinging to a unit rule, was poised
to switch its 30 votes from Ronald Reagan to Gerald Ford. The
President had the nomination wrapped up, with 1,135 votes, five
more than needed to nominate. Reagan might accept the vice-
presidential nomination and join Ford to knock out Jimmy Carter
with the Republicans' strongest one-two punch.

     Those were the varied, mounting claims of Ford strategists
last week as the war of nerves over the uncommitted delegates
to the Republican National Convention reached its greatest
intensity yet. In some desperation, Reagan's camp made claims
of its own. Campaign Manager John Sears, offering no
substantiation, contended that Reagan already had 1,140
delegates pinned down -- ten more than needed for the
nomination. ("He's blowing smoke," scoffed James Baker, Ford's
chief delegate hunter.) Reagan insisted yet again there was "no
way" he would accept the Veep role, but was instead working on
his top-of-the-ticket acceptance speech. He challenged Ford to
a debate at the Kansas City convention. Ford refused. Referring
to the Ford efforts to create a stampede atmosphere, Reagan Aide
David Keene declared: "If we hold it this week, the game will
be over and we'll win it."

     The truth was that Ford had made significant gains among
the uncommitted delegates, and the nomination, however
uncertainly, was within his grasp. TIME's delegate count placed
Ford's vote at 1,121 -- just nine short of the needed majority.
Reagan had 1,078, putting him 52 short. Only 60 delegates
remained uncommitted.

     In a press conference at week's end, Baker claimed
publicly for the first time that Ford was over the top, with
1,135 delegates favoring him on the first ballot at the
convention. But that margin, which the Reagan forces continued
to dispute, was hardly decisive in the fluid situation. Baker
released the names of 16 delegates not previously counted by him
in the Ford totals, notably 15 Hawaii delegates. Many delegate
counters had already credited Ford with several of these votes.
The fact that the Ford planners had not yet released the names
of all their claimed delegates -- as they had said earlier they
might do -- indicated some uncertainty in their delegate
commitments.


Trojan Horses

     A battle was developing in Mississippi, where signs of a
backlash surfaced over the attempt to promote a Ford takeover
-- and at week's end a narrow majority seemed to be leaning to
Reagan. "The Ford folks tried some overkill, and I think it's
backfired on them," observed State Republican Chairman Clarke
Reed. He accused Ford's local delegate hunters of
"high-pressure tactics and lies." He said that one of them
called another delegate and said, "If you don't sign on by 9
a.m., you won't be a federal judge." Warned Reed: "If I get mad,
I can and might just switch some of those Ford delegates back
to Reagan." Ford publicly ordered Administration officials and
campaign aides not to offer anything in return for support.

     While Ford's bandwagon psychology was effective, there was
surprising agreement in both camps on one highly significant
point. Reagan aides insisted, and Ford Political Consultant F.
Clifton White conceded, that between 40 and 50 of the delegates
now favoring Ford are "soft" and could conceivably defect under
the convention's pressures and emotions. Admitted another Ford
aide: "We've got a tougher time [than Reagan] holding out
troops in line." The President's wary assistants refer to those
soft votes as "closet Reaganites" or "Trojan horses."

     Both sides were letting out all the stops not only to
hold, but also to expand, their lines. Reagan spent no fewer
than 45 minutes on a phone call that he made to uncommitted New
York Delegate James White, a lawyer, who was "impressed" but
finally broke off the conversation because "I couldn't think of
anything else to ask him." When West Virginia's uncommitted Jody
Smirl, a candidate for the state legislature, visited the White
House, she told Ford she hoped to get his daughter Susan to
speak at a summer Republican youth camp in her state; Ford later
called her to say Susan would be delighted. Susan, who dislikes
campaigning, was irked but agreed. Nancy Reagan had also phoned
Mrs. Smirl, who mentioned her camp -- and the Reagans lined up
Actor Efrem Zimbalist Jr. to speak to the kids too.

     A few of the uncommitted tried to exploit their unexpected
political allure to the advantage of their home areas. Before
he announced the commitment of seven more New York delegates to
Ford, Edwin M. Schwenk, Republican leader of Long Island's
Suffolk County, asked Ford in Washington to "throw some federal
aid to our part of the woods," specifically to help ease
sewage- disposal problems. Reagan aide Lyn Nofzinger wryly
complained: "Ford's going after the effluent vote."

     Gentle Arm Twisting. Mostly, however, the uncommitted were
content to be flattered by the candidates' attention, and they
found the Ford and Reagan approached gentlemanly. "Both sides
are discreet," said North Dakota Delegate Don Shide. "It's very
courteous and very gentle arm twisting."

     Ford, of course, had more to offer. He entertained 121 New
Jersey delegates and alternates in the East Room last week,
then about 125 New York delegates; he plans to welcome Maryland
and Pennsylvania delegations this week. The New Jersey
delegates enjoyed their late afternoon cocktails as Ford mingled
easily with them for 40 minutes. He gave a short speech,
fielded questions for a full 45 minutes and got rousing applause
with his blunt defense of his pardon of Richard Nixon ("I would
do it again"). Not all delegates agreed with him, but they
appreciated his candor. Moved by the presidential aura, Thomas
Kean, New Jersey assembly Republican leader, echoed a feeling
of many visiting delegates: "I always get tingles up and down
my spine when I walk out of the White House door." Partially as
a result of the visit, two presumed Reagan delegates indicated
they were for Ford.

     The words, "The President is calling," dazzled many of the
uncommitted. Missouri's Marlene Zinzel, who with four other
delegates had been flown to Chicago at the Reagan campaign's
expense to meet the Californian for an hour, was nevertheless
"shocked" when Ford tracked her down by phone at a beauty shop
in Oakville, Mo. "I couldn't believe it," she recalls. "I can
hardly remember it. He told me he could win over Carter. He
asked if I would consider him, and I said that I would."

     Soft Votes. The uncommitted commonly insist that the
personal pleas of the candidates would not prove decisive. Many
seem to like both men, find both acceptable, but remain
uncertain of which has the better chance of beating Carter.
"It's futile to go just for philosophy -- you go with the
winner," contended Mississippi Delegate Mike Retzer, a fast-food
restaurant operator who seems to favor Ford. Explained North
Dakota's Shide, a farmer: "The main factor is who is electable.
The incumbent has the best chance normally -- but this year
everyone hates Washington." Illinois' William Scannell, a
lawyer, was convinced that "Gerald Ford has done a fine job as
President," but was worried because "I can't understand how Ford
is in the position he's in today."

     Other delegates wondered why Reagan, a better campaigner
than Ford, had not caught fire with the voters. Reagan was
particularly hurt among the uncommitted by all the polls --
Gallup, Harris, Yankelovich -- placing him far behind Ford in
a race against Carter. Said Louisiana Delegate Charles Dunbar
III, who has switched to Ford because of the polls: "I think
the public has made the decision for the delegates."

     Even if Ford does top 1,130 in pre-convention counts,
those many soft votes would still leave the outcome in a bit of
doubt. The convention rules allow a delegate to vote for anyone
he wishes, even if that person has not been nominated or the
delegation is bound  by his state primary election laws to vote
for another candidate. The Ford forces have suggested pushing
for a "justice" rule, under which delegates in the 19 states
that have binding primary laws must vote for the man to whom
they are pledged. Though the Reagan forces would probably not
oppose such a rule on principle, some feel that they would have
enough covert supporters in the convention to win a challenge
over procedural matters -- and might welcome such a test in
hopes of securing an early psychological victory. Reagan's last
best hope might well be to join -- or provoke -- any emotional
battle to unleash whatever Trojan horses may lurk behind the
President's lines.


Reagan: `I Don't Want Another 1964'

     As Ronald Reagan's struggle for Republican delegates came
under its worst strain, TIME National Political Correspondent
Robert Ajemian spoke with the Governor at his Pacific Palisades
home. Reports Ajemian:

     "I know the President has many inducements to offer these
uncommitted delegates," said Ronald Reagan with an easy smile,
"and he's offering them." Typically, Reagan sounded affable as
he made that blunt accusation. He sat in the long living room
of his Pacific palisades house, jaunty in his Chinese-red slacks
and matching sandals. The deep creases in his face and neck gave
way to a tanned chest, under his loosened sports shirt, that was
as smooth as a young lifeguard's. As Reagan saw it, Gerald
Ford's campaign staff has not been above dangling a highway
here, a hospital there,  loan from the Small Business
Administration. He went on: "I never ask these delegates
directly to come out and support me. They've got to decide that
on their own."

     At the end of his eight-month campaign, Ronald Reagan was
very much the way he was at the beginning: the reluctant
politician whose words were fiercer than his manner. Win or
lose, his candidacy has been extraordinary. He was seen by many
as shallow and simplistic and even dangerous. All but a handful
of Senators and Congressmen shunned him. He was opposed by
nearly every state organization. He had practically no
editorial support.

     But when it was all over, Reagan -- virtually alone -- had
collected several hundred thousand more votes than the
President in contested primaries. The popular explanation was
that opponent Ford was dull. But Reagan on his own had surely
touched a public nerve. Now, trailing Ford in delegates, he was
fighting -- in his low-key way -- to keep the race alive.

     Hard to Capture. The phone rang and Reagan moved into the
study to pick it up. It was a return call from South Carolina
Governor James Edwards, an ally. Reagan's voice was tentative:
"Jim, I don't want to cause any problems, but do you think we
could get out that announcement about your uncommitted? It would
be a nice boost now." He talked for a while longer about the
timing of the announcement and returned, looking pleased.

     Nevertheless, the uncommitted are proving hard for Reagan
to capture. A couple of weeks ago, he was speaking with his
usual polished force to a small cluster of Illinois delegates.
As he had done with other uncommitted, Reagan stressed his
electability, his better chance of smoking out Jimmy Carter.
But the staring faces showed little response. After a painful
silence, Reagan went on talking. He told them he was less
vulnerable than Ford to Democrats. When he finished, there was
no applause, only more silence. Asked if he thought he had won
over many of the delegates, Reagan shrugged: "They give so
little feedback, it's impossible to tell." For Reagan, the
winning orator, the man with the sure sense of the mood of his
audiences, the uncommitted are maddeningly tough to read.

     He is trying to persuade them to hold off until the roll
call, when, he insists, the President will fall short. Reagan
feels sure the outcome will not be truly clear until the
convention's first ballot. Furthermore, he contends that many
of Ford's own delegates are really Reagan supporters who --
either because of tradition or because they are afraid of being
punished politically -- are reluctant to desert the President.
Says Reagan, "That's the one argument the delegates always use
on me. They're uncomfortable turning against a President." When
they see Ford still shy, in Reagan's view, they will abandon
him.

     A Fast Lead. Reagan staffers have even figured out the
psychological benefit of the roll call. The early states like
Alabama and Arkansas through California should give Reagan a
fast lead of 250-29. He expects to hold an edge of 670-587 until
the time the count reaches New York, where a big Ford bloc
should life the President ahead.

     Though many Republicans fear that the Kansas City
convention will be bitter and bloody, the prevailing view is
that the two candidates will keep their tempers, and their
followers, under control. "I'm not going to do anything to make
this a bloody affair," vows Reagan. "I don't want another 1964."

     He has already ordered his staff to make no credentials
challenges and has called upon Ford to do the same. He knows
that the President's men are in charge of all the convention's
key committees, like rules and platform. But he believes the
permanent chairman, Arizona Congressman John Rhodes, even
though he is a Ford backer, will rule fairly on any floor
challenges.

     Reagan has already been disillusioned by the stiff-armed
treatment he has received from state party officials around the
country. He remembers laboring for many of the same people in
the past. He says that several of them even urged him to run,
promising their support, but then turned against him. A few
weeks ago, in Fort Collins, Colo., where he addressed the state
convention, Reagan was rudely interrupted by State Chairman
Carl Williams, a Ford supported, and warned that he must finish
his speech in two more minutes. While Ford Campaign Manager
Rogers Morton, forehead in hand, squirmed in great embarrassment
and Reagan delegates roared disapproval, the Governor gave way.
Later, in private, he sourly recalled how many times he had
come into the state to help raise money.

     Though Ford is in charge of the convention machinery,
Reagan's hard core of almost 1,100 delegates will give him a
virtual veto over most of the proceedings. "I've never seen a
convention like this," says a top Ford strategist. "If the
President gets nominated, he'll still be boxed in."

     The consensus of party professionals is that Ford will
make a guarded offer of the vice presidency to Reagan. Reagan
finds this a wry irony. "He doesn't have to worry," says the
Californian, "I absolutely will never take that job." Reminded
that others in the past have abruptly reversed themselves and
accepted the second post, Reagan sounds absolute. "They were
all politicians," he says. "I'm not. I know there's a great deal
of cynicism about what I say on this, but I want to be
believed." He says he intends to stay free to take independent
positions. If the convention tries to draft him, he insists he
will head it off and refuse.

     If Ford tries to buck the mood of the delegates and pick
a liberal Northerner, Reagan feels it could tear the convention
apart. He personally will oppose such a move. Says he: "It
would be a foolish mistake. Ford would lose the South. And a lot
of Republicans might not work for him. The balance of the
country is in the Sunbelt, and that's where the future of our
party is."

     This is a main reason, Sunbelter Reagan tells the
delegates, that he is the man who can defeat Carter. Reagan is
eager to debate the Georgian; he believes he can expose Carter
as a straddler on the issues. "Carter is brilliantly clever at
obscuring," says Reagan. "When you really pin him down, he is
not much different from Hubert Humphrey, just a quieter
version. Carter has told us he's going to balance the budget.
I want to price out the Democratic platform and see what all
those promises are going to cost. I'll uncover him."

     Easy Target. "Carter's main objection to Washington," adds
Reagan, "is who's there, not what's being done." Reagan thinks
Ford will be an easy target for Carter's non-Establishment
approach, for Democratic attacks on Watergate, Nixon and the
pardon.

     For a moment, in a curious way, Reagan sounded like the
man he wants to run against, Jimmy Carter. "The American people
are so fair, so ready to sacrifice," he said, "Washington just
doesn't know about our people any more. It has lost faith in
them."

     It was the appealing ring of the outsider. As with Carter,
the approach had served Reagan well. He had made some mistakes
along the bumpy way. He knows he should have entered more
primaries, like Ohio and New Jersey. Now, he told his wife
Nancy, it was like sitting in a courtroom and waiting for the
jury to come in. But no matter what happened, Reagan felt
vindicated by the hard journey. He had not destroyed himself --
or his party. He had challenged a President and made it stick.